Baderan Tehran 1–0 Kheybar Khorramabad

Baderan Tehran

FT

1 – 0

Kheybar Khorramabad

11/29/2020

Azadegan League · Round 2Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran36%

×Draw31%

Kheybar Khorramabad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baderan TehranExpected goals in this matchKheybar Khorramabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.96

Baderan Tehran

1.02

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.27

creates per match

1.04

0.88

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Baderan Tehran

1.27

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.04

allows per match

Baderan Tehran

0.88

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw

67%

Baderan Tehran or Kheybar Khorramabad

69%

Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad

64%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

14%

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

64%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

27%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

8%

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

62%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

25%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

52%

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more

36%

level

31%

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

33%

Baderan Tehran at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff