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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
6/5/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad49%
×Draw30%
Ario Eslamshahr21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.25
Ario Eslamshahr
0.72

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
79%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Ario Eslamshahr
70%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
51%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
22%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
71%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
36%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
13%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
51%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
16%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
70%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
49%
level
30%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
21%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Ario Eslamshahr

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Ario Eslamshahr 4-1 in Azadegan League on June 5, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.