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Ario Eslamshahr vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
12/12/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr33%
×Draw37%
Kheybar Khorramabad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–116%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
70%
Ario Eslamshahr or Kheybar Khorramabad
63%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
67%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
11%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
54%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
18%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
4%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
51%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
16%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
53%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
33%
level
37%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
30%

Ario Eslamshahr at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Ario Eslamshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Ario Eslamshahr 0–2 Kheybar Khorramabad

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Ario Eslamshahr 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Eslamshahr.