Khangarid 2–1 Athletic 220: Result & Stats

Khangarid

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Athletic 220

6/26/2022

Premier League · Round 16Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khangarid31%

×Draw21%

Athletic 22048%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhangaridExpected goals in this matchAthletic 220

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.19

Khangarid

1.75

Athletic 220

2.19

Athletic 220 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

2.19

creates per match

2.11

2.27

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Khangarid

2.19

Athletic 220

2.11

allows per match

Khangarid

2.27

Athletic 220

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khangarid+0.00on par

Athletic 220+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khangarid ↓

Athletic 220 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Khangarid or draw

52%

Khangarid or Athletic 220

79%

Draw or Athletic 220

69%

Winning margin

Khangarid wins by 2+

16%

Athletic 220 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Khangarid 1+ goals

83%

Khangarid 2+ goals

52%

Khangarid 3+ goals

25%

Athletic 220 1+ goals

89%

Athletic 220 2+ goals

64%

Athletic 220 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Khangarid (draw refunded)

40%

Athletic 220 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khangarid at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.27 · 75 matches

Athletic 220 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khangarid attack 2.19 + Athletic 220 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Athletic 220 attack 2.11 + Khangarid defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khangarid scores more

31%

level

21%

Athletic 220 scores more

48%

Athletic 220 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff