Athletic 220 7–2 Khangarid: Result & Stats

Athletic 220

FT

7 – 2

Khangarid

8/8/2021

Premier League · Round 3Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Athletic 22046%

×Draw21%

Khangarid32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic 220Expected goals in this matchKhangarid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.67

Athletic 220

2.02

Khangarid

1.67

Athletic 220 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 81 away

2.19

creates per match

2.26

1.07

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Athletic 220

2.19

Khangarid

2.26

allows per match

Athletic 220

1.07

Khangarid

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic 220+0.00on par

Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic 220 ↓

Khangarid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Athletic 220 or draw

68%

Athletic 220 or Khangarid

79%

Draw or Khangarid

54%

Winning margin

Athletic 220 wins by 2+

26%

Khangarid wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Athletic 220 1+ goals

87%

Athletic 220 2+ goals

60%

Athletic 220 3+ goals

33%

Khangarid 1+ goals

81%

Khangarid 2+ goals

50%

Khangarid 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Athletic 220 (draw refunded)

59%

Khangarid (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic 220 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic 220 attack 2.19 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

Khangarid attack 2.26 + Athletic 220 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Athletic 220 scores more

46%

level

21%

Khangarid scores more

32%

Athletic 220 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff