Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khan Tengri vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
A. Kalymbetov 8'
8/10/20231. Division1. Division · Round 19Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khan Tengri55%
×Draw22%
Jas Qyran24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khan Tengri
1.99
Jas Qyran
1.24

Khan Tengri creates 60% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 14 away

creates per match

Khan Tengri
1.55
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Khan Tengri
1.27
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Khan Tengri+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khan Tengri ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Khan Tengri or draw
76%
Khan Tengri or Jas Qyran
78%
Draw or Jas Qyran
45%

Winning margin

Khan Tengri wins by 2+
32%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khan Tengri 1+ goals
86%
Khan Tengri 2+ goals
59%
Khan Tengri 3+ goals
32%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
71%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
35%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Khan Tengri (draw refunded)
70%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khan Tengri at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khan Tengri attack 1.55 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.99

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Khan Tengri defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Khan Tengri scores more
55%
level
22%
Jas Qyran scores more
24%

Khan Tengri at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Khan Tengri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Kalymbetov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khan Tengri vs Jas Qyran

Jas Qyran beat Khan Tengri 1-0 in 1. Division on August 10, 2023.

Goals: A. Kalymbetov (8').

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.