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Jas Qyran vs Khan Tengri — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
5/4/20231. Division1. Division · Round 5Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran55%
×Draw21%
Khan Tengri24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
2.10
Khan Tengri
1.31

Jas Qyran creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Khan Tengri
1.34

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Khan Tengri
1.85

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Khan Tengri+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Khan Tengri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
76%
Jas Qyran or Khan Tengri
79%
Draw or Khan Tengri
45%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
33%
Khan Tengri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
88%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
62%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
35%
Khan Tengri 1+ goals
73%
Khan Tengri 2+ goals
38%
Khan Tengri 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
70%
Khan Tengri (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Khan Tengri away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Khan Tengri defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.10

Khan Tengri attack 1.34 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
55%
level
21%
Khan Tengri scores more
24%

Jas Qyran at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Jas Qyran 2–0 Khan Tengri

Jas Qyran beat Khan Tengri 2-0 in 1. Division on May 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.