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Khalij Fars vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
3/29/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars29%
×Draw31%
Fajr Sepasi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalij Fars
0.87
Fajr Sepasi
1.09

Fajr Sepasi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 98 away

creates per match

Khalij Fars
0.88
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Khalij Fars
1.16
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw
60%
Khalij Fars or Fajr Sepasi
69%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
71%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+
10%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals
58%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
22%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
6%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
66%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
30%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
42%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khalij Fars scores more
29%
level
31%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
40%

Fajr Sepasi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khalij Fars vs Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Khalij Fars 4-0 in Azadegan League on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr in Mahshahr.