Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Khalij Fars: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khalij Fars

10/27/2023

Azadegan League · Round 9Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Fajr Sepasi65%

×Draw24%

Khalij Fars11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchKhalij Fars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.49

Fajr Sepasi

1.62

Khalij Fars

0.49

Fajr Sepasi creates 231% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 25 away

1.40

creates per match

0.48

0.50

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Khalij Fars

0.48

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Khalij Fars

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Khalij Fars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

89%

Fajr Sepasi or Khalij Fars

76%

Draw or Khalij Fars

35%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

37%

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

80%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

48%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

22%

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

39%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

9%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

86%

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

65%

level

24%

Khalij Fars scores more

11%

Fajr Sepasi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff