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Khalij Fars vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
11/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars31%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal Khuzestan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalij Fars
0.91
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.05

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 67 away

creates per match

Khalij Fars
0.88
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

allows per match

Khalij Fars
1.16
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw
62%
Khalij Fars or Esteghlal Khuzestan
69%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
69%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+
11%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals
60%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
23%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
6%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
65%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
28%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
45%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khalij Fars scores more
31%
level
31%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
38%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khalij Fars vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Khalij Fars beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr in Mahshahr.