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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
4/22/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan62%
×Draw25%
Khalij Fars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.54
Khalij Fars
0.52

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 196% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
88%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Khalij Fars
75%
Draw or Khalij Fars
38%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
34%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
79%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
45%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
20%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
41%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
10%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
84%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.54

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
62%
level
25%
Khalij Fars scores more
12%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–0 Khalij Fars

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Khalij Fars 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.