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Khalij Fars vs Darya Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Darya Babol
Darya Babol
11/3/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Shohadaye Omidiyeh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars36%
×Draw32%
Darya Babol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khalij Fars
1.00
Darya Babol
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

creates per match

Khalij Fars
0.88
Darya Babol
0.71

allows per match

Khalij Fars
1.16
Darya Babol
1.12

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par
Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Darya Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw
68%
Khalij Fars or Darya Babol
68%
Draw or Darya Babol
64%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+
14%
Darya Babol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals
63%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
26%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
8%
Darya Babol 1+ goals
61%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
24%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
53%
Darya Babol (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Khalij Fars scores more
36%
level
32%
Darya Babol scores more
32%

Khalij Fars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Khalij Fars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khalij Fars 1–1 Darya Babol

Khalij Fars and Darya Babol drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Shohadaye Omidiyeh Stadium in Omidiyeh.