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Darya Babol vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
10/11/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Darya Babol57%
×Draw26%
Khalij Fars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
1.50
Khalij Fars
0.67

Darya Babol creates 124% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
83%
Darya Babol or Khalij Fars
74%
Draw or Khalij Fars
43%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
30%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
78%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
44%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
19%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
49%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
15%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
78%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Darya Babol scores more
57%
level
26%
Khalij Fars scores more
17%

Darya Babol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darya Babol vs Khalij Fars

Darya Babol beat Khalij Fars 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 11, 2022.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.