Khalij Fars 4–2 Chooka Talesh: Result & Stats

Khalij Fars

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Chooka Talesh

5/17/2023

Azadegan League · Round 33Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars46%

×Draw28%

Chooka Talesh26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khalij FarsExpected goals in this matchChooka Talesh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.89

Khalij Fars

1.30

Chooka Talesh

0.89

Khalij Fars creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

0.88

creates per match

0.61

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Khalij Fars

0.88

Chooka Talesh

0.61

allows per match

Khalij Fars

1.16

Chooka Talesh

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Chooka Talesh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw

74%

Khalij Fars or Chooka Talesh

72%

Draw or Chooka Talesh

54%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

21%

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

73%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

37%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

14%

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals

59%

Chooka Talesh 2+ goals

22%

Chooka Talesh 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

64%

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khalij Fars scores more

46%

level

28%

Chooka Talesh scores more

26%

Khalij Fars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khalij Fars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff