Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chooka Talesh vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
12/25/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chooka Talesh52%
×Draw26%
Khalij Fars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.50
Khalij Fars
0.88

Chooka Talesh creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
78%
Chooka Talesh or Khalij Fars
74%
Draw or Khalij Fars
48%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
26%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
78%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
44%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
19%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
59%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
22%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
70%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
52%
level
26%
Khalij Fars scores more
22%

Chooka Talesh at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Khalij Fars

Chooka Talesh and Khalij Fars drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 25, 2022.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.