Khalij Fars 0–1 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Khalij Fars

FT

0 – 1

Chadormalu SC

12/31/2022

Azadegan League · Round 17Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khalij Fars23%

×Draw31%

Chadormalu SC46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khalij FarsExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.16

Khalij Fars

0.74

Chadormalu SC

1.16

Chadormalu SC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

0.88

creates per match

1.16

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Khalij Fars

0.88

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Khalij Fars

1.16

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw

54%

Khalij Fars or Chadormalu SC

69%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

77%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

7%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

52%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

17%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

4%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

69%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

32%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

34%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khalij Fars scores more

23%

level

31%

Chadormalu SC scores more

46%

Chadormalu SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff