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Chadormalu SC vs Khalij Fars — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Khalij Fars
Khalij Fars
5/23/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chadormalu SC58%
×Draw25%
Khalij Fars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.56
Khalij Fars
0.69

Chadormalu SC creates 126% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Khalij Fars
0.48

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Khalij Fars
1.84

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Khalij Fars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
84%
Chadormalu SC or Khalij Fars
75%
Draw or Khalij Fars
42%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
31%
Khalij Fars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
79%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
46%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
21%
Khalij Fars 1+ goals
50%
Khalij Fars 2+ goals
15%
Khalij Fars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
78%
Khalij Fars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
58%
level
25%
Khalij Fars scores more
16%

Chadormalu SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chadormalu SC 0–1 Khalij Fars

Khalij Fars beat Chadormalu SC 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 23, 2023.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.