Khalidiya 0–0 Andijan: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Khalidiya

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Andijan

11/5/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Al Muharraq Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khalidiya52%

×Draw29%

Andijan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhalidiyaExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.69

Khalidiya

1.33

Andijan

0.69

Khalidiya creates 93% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.00

1.38

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Khalidiya

2.00

Andijan

0.00

allows per match

Khalidiya

1.38

Andijan

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khalidiya+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalidiya ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Khalidiya or draw

81%

Khalidiya or Andijan

71%

Draw or Andijan

48%

Winning margin

Khalidiya wins by 2+

25%

Andijan wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Khalidiya 1+ goals

74%

Khalidiya 2+ goals

38%

Khalidiya 3+ goals

15%

Andijan 1+ goals

50%

Andijan 2+ goals

15%

Andijan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Khalidiya (draw refunded)

73%

Andijan (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalidiya at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalidiya attack 2.00 + Andijan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Andijan attack 0.00 + Khalidiya defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khalidiya scores more

52%

level

29%

Andijan scores more

19%

Khalidiya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khalidiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff