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Andijan vs Khalidiya — AFC Cup 2018

Andijan
Andijan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khalidiya
Khalidiya
10/22/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Bobur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Andijan30%
×Draw39%
Khalidiya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andijan
0.67
Khalidiya
0.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Andijan
0.33
Khalidiya
1.00

allows per match

Andijan
0.33
Khalidiya
1.00

finishing

Andijan+0.00on par
Khalidiya+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andijan ↓

Khalidiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–118%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Andijan or draw
70%
Andijan or Khalidiya
61%
Draw or Khalidiya
70%

Winning margin

Andijan wins by 2+
9%
Khalidiya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Andijan 1+ goals
49%
Andijan 2+ goals
15%
Andijan 3+ goals
3%
Khalidiya 1+ goals
49%
Khalidiya 2+ goals
15%
Khalidiya 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Andijan (draw refunded)
50%
Khalidiya (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andijan at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Khalidiya away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andijan attack 0.33 + Khalidiya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Khalidiya attack 1.00 + Andijan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Andijan scores more
30%
level
39%
Khalidiya scores more
30%

Andijan at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Andijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andijan vs Khalidiya

Andijan and Khalidiya drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on October 22, 2025.

The match was played at Bobur Arena in Andijan.