Khaleej Sart 0–1 Al Ahli Benghazi: Result & Stats

Khaleej Sart

FT

0 – 1

Al Ahli Benghazi

5/21/2021

Premier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Khaleej Sart30%

×Draw27%

Al Ahli Benghazi43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khaleej SartExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Benghazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.35

Khaleej Sart

1.08

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.35

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

1.42

creates per match

1.49

1.21

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Khaleej Sart

1.42

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.49

allows per match

Khaleej Sart

1.21

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Al Ahli Benghazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw

57%

Khaleej Sart or Al Ahli Benghazi

73%

Draw or Al Ahli Benghazi

70%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+

12%

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals

66%

Khaleej Sart 2+ goals

29%

Khaleej Sart 3+ goals

10%

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

74%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

39%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)

41%

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Al Ahli Benghazi away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.75 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.49 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more

30%

level

27%

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

43%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff