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Al Ahli Benghazi vs Khaleej Sart — Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Benghazi
Al Ahli Benghazi
FT
1 – 3
Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
7/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi58%
×Draw24%
Khaleej Sart18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.68
Khaleej Sart
0.81

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 107% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 38 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi
1.78
Khaleej Sart
0.95

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi
0.68
Khaleej Sart
1.58

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par
Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

Khaleej Sart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw
82%
Al Ahli Benghazi or Khaleej Sart
76%
Draw or Khaleej Sart
42%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+
32%
Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals
81%
Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals
50%
Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals
24%
Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
56%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
19%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)
76%
Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 69 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.78 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more
58%
level
24%
Khaleej Sart scores more
18%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ahli Benghazi 1–3 Khaleej Sart

Khaleej Sart beat Al Ahli Benghazi 3-1 in Premier League on July 26, 2021.