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KFUM Roskilde vs Karlslunde — 3. Division 2021

KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karlslunde
Karlslunde
5/21/20223. Division3. Division · Relegation Round - 6Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde43%
×Draw23%
Karlslunde35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Roskilde
1.78
Karlslunde
1.59

KFUM Roskilde creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.44
Karlslunde
1.50

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.69
Karlslunde
2.13

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par
Karlslunde+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

Karlslunde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw
65%
KFUM Roskilde or Karlslunde
77%
Draw or Karlslunde
57%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
22%
Karlslunde wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
83%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
53%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
26%
Karlslunde 1+ goals
80%
Karlslunde 2+ goals
47%
Karlslunde 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
55%
Karlslunde (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Karlslunde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + Karlslunde defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Karlslunde attack 1.50 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more
43%
level
23%
Karlslunde scores more
35%

KFUM Roskilde at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KFUM Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFUM Roskilde vs Karlslunde

KFUM Roskilde beat Karlslunde 2-1 in 3. Division on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Lillevang Idrætscenter in Roskilde.