Karlslunde 4–0 KFUM Roskilde: Result & Stats

Karlslunde

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KFUM Roskilde

4/18/2022

3. Division · Relegation Round - 1Karlslunde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karlslunde57%

×Draw21%

KFUM Roskilde22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlslundeExpected goals in this matchKFUM Roskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.19

Karlslunde

2.04

KFUM Roskilde

1.19

Karlslunde creates 71% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

2.19

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Karlslunde

2.19

KFUM Roskilde

0.94

allows per match

Karlslunde

1.44

KFUM Roskilde

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlslunde+0.00on par

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlslunde ↓

KFUM Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Karlslunde or draw

78%

Karlslunde or KFUM Roskilde

79%

Draw or KFUM Roskilde

43%

Winning margin

Karlslunde wins by 2+

34%

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Karlslunde 1+ goals

87%

Karlslunde 2+ goals

60%

Karlslunde 3+ goals

33%

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals

70%

KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals

33%

KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karlslunde (draw refunded)

72%

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlslunde at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlslunde attack 2.19 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

KFUM Roskilde attack 0.94 + Karlslunde defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karlslunde scores more

57%

level

21%

KFUM Roskilde scores more

22%

Karlslunde at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Karlslunde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff