KFUM Roskilde 3–0 Herlev: Result & Stats

KFUM Roskilde

FT

3 – 0

Herlev

8/14/2021

3. Division · Round 2Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde60%

×Draw20%

Herlev19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM RoskildeExpected goals in this matchHerlev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.16

KFUM Roskilde

2.19

Herlev

1.16

KFUM Roskilde creates 89% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

0.63

1.69

allows per match

2.94

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde

1.44

Herlev

0.63

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde

1.69

Herlev

2.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Herlev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

Herlev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw

81%

KFUM Roskilde or Herlev

80%

Draw or Herlev

40%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+

38%

Herlev wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals

89%

KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals

64%

KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals

37%

Herlev 1+ goals

69%

Herlev 2+ goals

32%

Herlev 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)

76%

Herlev (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Herlev away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + Herlev defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.19

Herlev attack 0.63 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more

60%

level

20%

Herlev scores more

19%

KFUM Roskilde at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KFUM Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff