Herlev 1–2 KFUM Roskilde: Result & Stats

Herlev

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

KFUM Roskilde

4/9/2022

3. Division · Round 22Herlev Stadion Bane 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Herlev37%

×Draw24%

KFUM Roskilde39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerlevExpected goals in this matchKFUM Roskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.53

Herlev

1.47

KFUM Roskilde

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.06

creates per match

0.94

2.13

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Herlev

1.06

KFUM Roskilde

0.94

allows per match

Herlev

2.13

KFUM Roskilde

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herlev+0.00on par

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herlev ↓

KFUM Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Herlev or draw

61%

Herlev or KFUM Roskilde

76%

Draw or KFUM Roskilde

63%

Winning margin

Herlev wins by 2+

17%

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Herlev 1+ goals

77%

Herlev 2+ goals

43%

Herlev 3+ goals

18%

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals

78%

KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals

45%

KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Herlev (draw refunded)

48%

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herlev at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herlev attack 1.06 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.47

KFUM Roskilde attack 0.94 + Herlev defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Herlev scores more

37%

level

24%

KFUM Roskilde scores more

39%

KFUM Roskilde at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KFUM Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff