KFUM Oslo 1–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

T. Haltvik 46'

M. Jorgensen 90'

F. Sjovold 30'

11/21/2025

Eliteserien · Round 29KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

KFUM Oslo29%

×Draw25%

Bodo/Glimt46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.52

KFUM Oslo

1.15

Bodo/Glimt

1.52

Bodo/Glimt creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.09

creates per match

1.86

1.18

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.09

Bodo/Glimt

1.86

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.18

Bodo/Glimt

1.21

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.29scores less

Bodo/Glimt+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

54%

KFUM Oslo or Bodo/Glimt

75%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

71%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

11%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

68%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

32%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

11%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

78%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

45%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

39%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.09 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bodo/Glimt attack 1.86 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

29%

level

25%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

46%

Bodo/Glimt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Hjorth

KFUM Oslo · M

6.9

Match Events

3'

Sondre FetGoal cancelled

30'

F. Sjovold↳ I. Maatta

34'

Mame Ndiaye

46'

B. Njie← M. Njie

46'

T. Haltvik

63'

Fredrik Tobias Berglie

66'

Amin Nouri

67'

H. Aleesami← B. Moe

67'

D. Bassi← O. Blomberg

67'

H. Evjen← S. Auklend

72'

Mathias Tonnessen

76'

D. Schneider← M. Tonnessen

83'

B. Kristensen← D. Hickson

83'

U. Saltnes← S. Fet

83'

M. Jorgensen← I. Maatta

90+9'

Henrik Udahl

90+7'

H. Udahl← B. Skaret

90'

M. Jorgensen↳ F. Sjovold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMBodo/Glimt

Overview

19%Possession81%

1Total Shots0

1Fouls0

Shots

1Total Shots0

0On Target0

1Off Target0

0Blocked0

1Inside Box0

0Outside Box0

Passing

19%Possession81%

8Total Passes39

3Accurate Passes35

38%Pass Accuracy90%

Discipline

1Fouls0

0Offsides1