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Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2025

Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
U. Saltnes 90'
K. Hogh 87' (pen), 80'
4/27/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 4Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bodo/Glimt69%
×Draw17%
KFUM Oslo13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodo/Glimt
2.42
KFUM Oslo
0.96

Bodo/Glimt creates 152% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt
3.26
KFUM Oslo
1.18

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt
0.74
KFUM Oslo
1.59

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par
KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw
87%
Bodo/Glimt or KFUM Oslo
83%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
31%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
47%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
91%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
69%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
43%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
62%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
25%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
84%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 3.26 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.42

KFUM Oslo attack 1.18 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more
69%
level
17%
KFUM Oslo scores more
13%

Bodo/Glimt at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
K. HoghBodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt · F
8.5

Match Events

15'
Håkon Evjen
46'
Robin Rasch
53'
V. Nielsen← O. L. Bjortuft
69'
B. Kristensen← T. Haltvik
71'
K. Hogh← A. Helmersen
71'
S. Sorli← I. Maatta
80'
K. Hogh↳ S. Sorli
83'
N. Semmen← M. Tonnessen
87'
K. HoghPenalty
90'
H. Aleesami← F. Bjorkan
90'
S. Auklend← U. Saltnes
90'
U. Saltnes↳ F. Sjovold

Possession

72%Bodo/Glimt

Shots

11Bodo/Glimt

Pass accuracy

54%Bodo/Glimt

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtKFUM
Overview
72%Possession28%
11Total Shots5
2.08Expected Goals (xG)0.51
11Corners6
5Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots5
5On Target2
2Off Target3
4Blocked0
9Inside Box4
2Outside Box1
Passing
72%Possession28%
707Total Passes277
642Accurate Passes213
91%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Bodo/Glimt 3–0 KFUM Oslo

Bodo/Glimt beat KFUM Oslo 3-0 in Eliteserien on April 27, 2025.

Goals: K. Hogh (80', 87' pen), U. Saltnes (90').

Bodo/Glimt controlled possession (72%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodo.