Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KFUM II vs Hammerfest IF Stein — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

KFUM II
KFUM II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
6/24/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 11KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KFUM II87%
×Draw9%
Hammerfest IF Stein5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM II
3.77
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.85

KFUM II creates 344% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

KFUM II
2.62
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.08

allows per match

KFUM II
1.62
Hammerfest IF Stein
4.92

finishing

KFUM II+0.00on par
Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM II ↓

Hammerfest IF Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

KFUM II or draw
95%
KFUM II or Hammerfest IF Stein
91%
Draw or Hammerfest IF Stein
13%

Winning margin

KFUM II wins by 2+
72%
Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

KFUM II 1+ goals
97%
KFUM II 2+ goals
88%
KFUM II 3+ goals
70%
Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
57%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
21%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KFUM II (draw refunded)
95%
Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Hammerfest IF Stein away — creates 0.08, concedes 4.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM II attack 2.62 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.92 → ÷2 → 3.77

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.08 + KFUM II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

KFUM II scores more
87%
level
9%
Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
5%

KFUM II at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: KFUM II 2–0 Hammerfest IF Stein

KFUM II beat Hammerfest IF Stein 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.