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Hammerfest IF Stein vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
KFUM II
KFUM II
10/22/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 25Vår Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hammerfest IF Stein20%
×Draw18%
KFUM II62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammerfest IF Stein
1.46
KFUM II
2.65

KFUM II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hammerfest IF Stein
0.69
KFUM II
1.15

allows per match

Hammerfest IF Stein
4.15
KFUM II
2.23

finishing

Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammerfest IF Stein ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hammerfest IF Stein or draw
38%
Hammerfest IF Stein or KFUM II
82%
Draw or KFUM II
80%

Winning margin

Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
8%
KFUM II wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
77%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
43%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
18%
KFUM II 1+ goals
93%
KFUM II 2+ goals
74%
KFUM II 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
24%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammerfest IF Stein at home — creates 0.69, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.69 + KFUM II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

KFUM II attack 1.15 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
20%
level
18%
KFUM II scores more
62%

KFUM II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Hammerfest IF Stein 0–4 KFUM II

KFUM II beat Hammerfest IF Stein 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Vår Energi Arena in Hammerfest.