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KFUM II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

KFUM II
KFUM II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
M. Sinyan 54'
M. Soreide 88'
8/18/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 16KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

KFUM II48%
×Draw21%
Funnefoss / Vormsund31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM II
2.12
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.70

KFUM II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

KFUM II
1.58
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

KFUM II
1.79
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

KFUM II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

KFUM II or draw
69%
KFUM II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
79%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
52%

Winning margin

KFUM II wins by 2+
28%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KFUM II 1+ goals
88%
KFUM II 2+ goals
62%
KFUM II 3+ goals
35%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
82%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
51%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

KFUM II (draw refunded)
60%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM II attack 1.58 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.12

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + KFUM II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KFUM II scores more
48%
level
21%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
31%

KFUM II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
M. Sinyan
88'
M. Soreide

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KFUM II 1 – 1 Funnefoss / Vormsund

KFUM II and Funnefoss / Vormsund drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Sinyan (54'), M. Soreide (88').

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.