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Funnefoss / Vormsund vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
KFUM II
KFUM II
I. Veiby 87'
M. Mehl 85', 75'
P. Degnes 4'
6/23/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 11Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund41%
×Draw20%
KFUM II39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.13
KFUM II
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.63
KFUM II
1.95

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.21
KFUM II
2.63

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
61%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or KFUM II
80%
Draw or KFUM II
59%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
23%
KFUM II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
88%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
63%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
35%
KFUM II 1+ goals
87%
KFUM II 2+ goals
61%
KFUM II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
51%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.63 + KFUM II defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.13

KFUM II attack 1.95 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
41%
level
20%
KFUM II scores more
39%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
P. Degnes
45'
M. Walle
45'
M. Walle
75'
M. Mehl
85'
M. Mehl
87'
I. Veiby

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Funnefoss / Vormsund 1–3 KFUM II

KFUM II beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Degnes (4'), M. Mehl (75', 85'), I. Veiby (87').

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.