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KFUM II vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

KFUM II
KFUM II
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Fløya
Fløya
M. Mehl 90'
P. Degnes 83', 81' (pen)
N. Botchway 73'
T. J. Isaksen 61'
T. Whalen 42'
O. Olsen 37'
G. Severinsen 8'
3/29/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 1KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KFUM II42%
×Draw20%
Fløya38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM II
2.17
Fløya
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

KFUM II
1.58
Fløya
2.38

allows per match

KFUM II
1.79
Fløya
2.77

finishing

KFUM II+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM II ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

KFUM II or draw
62%
KFUM II or Fløya
80%
Draw or Fløya
58%

Winning margin

KFUM II wins by 2+
23%
Fløya wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

KFUM II 1+ goals
89%
KFUM II 2+ goals
64%
KFUM II 3+ goals
36%
Fløya 1+ goals
87%
Fløya 2+ goals
61%
Fløya 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

KFUM II (draw refunded)
52%
Fløya (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM II attack 1.58 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fløya attack 2.38 + KFUM II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KFUM II scores more
42%
level
20%
Fløya scores more
38%

KFUM II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
G. Severinsen
37'
O. Olsen
42'
T. Whalen
61'
T. J. Isaksen
73'
N. Botchway
81'
P. DegnesPenalty
83'
P. Degnes
90'
M. Mehl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: KFUM II 3–5 Fløya

Fløya beat KFUM II 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on March 29, 2025.

Goals: G. Severinsen (8'), O. Olsen (37'), T. Whalen (42'), T. J. Isaksen (61'), N. Botchway (73'), P. Degnes (81' pen, 83'), M. Mehl (90').

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.