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Fløya vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Fløya
Fløya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KFUM II
KFUM II
S. Fitzgerald 82', 55'
9/24/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 21Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya65%
×Draw18%
KFUM II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
2.49
KFUM II
1.21

Fløya creates 106% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fløya
2.74
KFUM II
1.15

allows per match

Fløya
1.28
KFUM II
2.23

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
83%
Fløya or KFUM II
82%
Draw or KFUM II
35%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
43%
KFUM II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
92%
Fløya 2+ goals
71%
Fløya 3+ goals
45%
KFUM II 1+ goals
70%
KFUM II 2+ goals
34%
KFUM II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
79%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.74 + KFUM II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.49

KFUM II attack 1.15 + Fløya defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fløya scores more
65%
level
18%
KFUM II scores more
17%

Fløya at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
S. Fitzgerald
82'
S. Fitzgerald

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fløya vs KFUM II

Fløya beat KFUM II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 24, 2023.

Goals: S. Fitzgerald (55', 82').

The match was played at Fløyabanen in Tromsø.