KFC Uerdingen 05 1–0 FSV Duisburg: Result & Stats

KFC Uerdingen 05

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FSV Duisburg

2/17/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 25Grotenburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

KFC Uerdingen 0566%

×Draw18%

FSV Duisburg16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFC Uerdingen 05Expected goals in this matchFSV Duisburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.11

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.44

FSV Duisburg

1.11

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

2.19

creates per match

0.93

1.30

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.19

FSV Duisburg

0.93

allows per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.30

FSV Duisburg

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFC Uerdingen 05 ↓

FSV Duisburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

KFC Uerdingen 05 or draw

84%

KFC Uerdingen 05 or FSV Duisburg

82%

Draw or FSV Duisburg

34%

Winning margin

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

44%

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

91%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

70%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

43%

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

67%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

30%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

81%

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFC Uerdingen 05 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 2.19 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.44

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

66%

level

18%

FSV Duisburg scores more

16%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff