FSV Duisburg 0–2 KFC Uerdingen 05: Result & Stats

FSV Duisburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

KFC Uerdingen 05

8/20/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

FSV Duisburg29%

×Draw23%

KFC Uerdingen 0548%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV DuisburgExpected goals in this matchKFC Uerdingen 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.84

FSV Duisburg

1.39

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.84

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 53 away

1.38

creates per match

1.51

2.17

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FSV Duisburg

1.38

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.51

allows per match

FSV Duisburg

2.17

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw

52%

FSV Duisburg or KFC Uerdingen 05

77%

Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05

71%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

13%

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

75%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

40%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

16%

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

84%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

55%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

38%

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more

29%

level

23%

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

48%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff