KF Gostivari 1–0 Bregalnica Štip: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bregalnica Štip

10/23/2024

Cup · Round of 16Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KF Gostivari19%

×Draw20%

Bregalnica Štip60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchBregalnica Štip

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.17

KF Gostivari

1.15

Bregalnica Štip

2.17

Bregalnica Štip creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

3.13

1.20

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.80

Bregalnica Štip

3.13

allows per match

KF Gostivari

1.20

Bregalnica Štip

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Bregalnica Štip →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

40%

KF Gostivari or Bregalnica Štip

80%

Draw or Bregalnica Štip

81%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

7%

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

68%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

32%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

11%

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

89%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

64%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

24%

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 3.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.80 + Bregalnica Štip defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bregalnica Štip attack 3.13 + KF Gostivari defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

19%

level

20%

Bregalnica Štip scores more

60%

Bregalnica Štip at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff