KF Gostivari 1–0 Bregalnica Štip: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bregalnica Štip

11/11/2023

First League · Round 14Igralište Golema Rečica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KF Gostivari51%

×Draw27%

Bregalnica Štip22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchBregalnica Štip

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.86

KF Gostivari

1.46

Bregalnica Štip

0.86

KF Gostivari creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 47 away

1.27

creates per match

0.81

0.91

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.27

Bregalnica Štip

0.81

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.91

Bregalnica Štip

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Bregalnica Štip →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

78%

KF Gostivari or Bregalnica Štip

73%

Draw or Bregalnica Štip

49%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

26%

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

77%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

43%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

18%

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

58%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

21%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

70%

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.27 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + KF Gostivari defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

51%

level

27%

Bregalnica Štip scores more

22%

KF Gostivari at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff