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KF Gostivari vs Borec — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Borec
Borec
5/9/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

KF Gostivari79%
×Draw15%
Borec6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
2.42
Borec
0.52

KF Gostivari creates 365% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 31 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.83
Borec
0.32

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.72
Borec
3.00

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Borec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Borec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
94%
KF Gostivari or Borec
85%
Draw or Borec
21%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
56%
Borec wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
91%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
69%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
43%
Borec 1+ goals
41%
Borec 2+ goals
10%
Borec 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
93%
Borec (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Borec away — creates 0.32, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Borec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Borec attack 0.32 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
79%
level
15%
Borec scores more
6%

KF Gostivari at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF Gostivari vs Borec

KF Gostivari beat Borec 4-0 in Second League on May 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.