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Borec vs KF Gostivari — Second League 2019

Borec
Borec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
12/3/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 14Stadion Zoran Paunov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Borec17%
×Draw22%
KF Gostivari62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borec
0.89
KF Gostivari
1.94

KF Gostivari creates 118% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

creates per match

Borec
0.83
KF Gostivari
1.64

allows per match

Borec
2.23
KF Gostivari
0.94

finishing

Borec+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borec ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Borec or draw
38%
Borec or KF Gostivari
78%
Draw or KF Gostivari
83%

Winning margin

Borec wins by 2+
5%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Borec 1+ goals
59%
Borec 2+ goals
22%
Borec 3+ goals
6%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
86%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
58%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Borec (draw refunded)
21%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borec at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borec attack 0.83 + KF Gostivari defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

KF Gostivari attack 1.64 + Borec defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Borec scores more
17%
level
22%
KF Gostivari scores more
62%

KF Gostivari at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borec vs KF Gostivari

KF Gostivari beat Borec 2-0 in Second League on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zoran Paunov in Veles.