Kerry 1–4 Cork City: Result & Stats

Kerry

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Cork City

9/13/2024

First Division · Round 31Mounthawk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Kerry22%

×Draw26%

Cork City53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KerryExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.55

Kerry

0.89

Cork City

1.55

Cork City creates 74% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 58 away

1.03

creates per match

1.59

1.51

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Kerry

1.03

Cork City

1.59

allows per match

Kerry

1.51

Cork City

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kerry+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerry ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kerry or draw

47%

Kerry or Cork City

74%

Draw or Cork City

78%

Winning margin

Kerry wins by 2+

7%

Cork City wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kerry 1+ goals

59%

Kerry 2+ goals

22%

Kerry 3+ goals

6%

Cork City 1+ goals

79%

Cork City 2+ goals

46%

Cork City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kerry (draw refunded)

29%

Cork City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerry at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerry attack 1.03 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Cork City attack 1.59 + Kerry defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kerry scores more

22%

level

26%

Cork City scores more

53%

Cork City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff