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Cork City vs Kerry — First Division 2019

Cork City
Cork City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kerry
Kerry
7/26/2024First DivisionFirst Division · Round 25Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City65%
×Draw21%
Kerry15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City
2.01
Kerry
0.83

Cork City creates 142% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cork City
1.97
Kerry
0.91

allows per match

Cork City
0.75
Kerry
2.05

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par
Kerry+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Kerry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cork City or draw
85%
Cork City or Kerry
79%
Draw or Kerry
35%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+
40%
Kerry wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals
87%
Cork City 2+ goals
59%
Cork City 3+ goals
32%
Kerry 1+ goals
56%
Kerry 2+ goals
20%
Kerry 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)
82%
Kerry (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Kerry away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.97 + Kerry defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kerry attack 0.91 + Cork City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Cork City scores more
65%
level
21%
Kerry scores more
15%

Cork City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Cork City 2–0 Kerry

Cork City beat Kerry 2-0 in First Division on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Turner's Cross in Cork.