Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kerry vs Cobh Ramblers — First Division 2019

Kerry
Kerry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
9/5/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 30Mounthawk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kerry37%
×Draw26%
Cobh Ramblers37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerry
1.37
Cobh Ramblers
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 120 away

creates per match

Kerry
1.03
Cobh Ramblers
1.23

allows per match

Kerry
1.51
Cobh Ramblers
1.71

finishing

Kerry+0.00on par
Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerry ↓

Cobh Ramblers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kerry or draw
63%
Kerry or Cobh Ramblers
74%
Draw or Cobh Ramblers
63%

Winning margin

Kerry wins by 2+
17%
Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kerry 1+ goals
75%
Kerry 2+ goals
40%
Kerry 3+ goals
16%
Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals
75%
Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals
40%
Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kerry (draw refunded)
50%
Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerry at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerry attack 1.03 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.23 + Kerry defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kerry scores more
37%
level
26%
Cobh Ramblers scores more
37%

Kerry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kerry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Kerry 1–1 Cobh Ramblers

Kerry and Cobh Ramblers drew 1-1 in First Division on September 5, 2025.

The match was played at Mounthawk Park in Tralee.