Cobh Ramblers 1–0 Kerry: Result & Stats

Cobh Ramblers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kerry

6/23/2025

First Division · Round 20St. Colman's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cobh Ramblers51%

×Draw24%

Kerry25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cobh RamblersExpected goals in this matchKerry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.17

Cobh Ramblers

1.76

Kerry

1.17

Cobh Ramblers creates 50% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 66 away

1.47

creates per match

0.91

1.43

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Cobh Ramblers

1.47

Kerry

0.91

allows per match

Cobh Ramblers

1.43

Kerry

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Kerry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobh Ramblers ↓

Kerry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cobh Ramblers or draw

75%

Cobh Ramblers or Kerry

76%

Draw or Kerry

49%

Winning margin

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

28%

Kerry wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

83%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

52%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

26%

Kerry 1+ goals

69%

Kerry 2+ goals

33%

Kerry 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

67%

Kerry (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobh Ramblers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

Kerry away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.47 + Kerry defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kerry attack 0.91 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cobh Ramblers scores more

51%

level

24%

Kerry scores more

25%

Cobh Ramblers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cobh Ramblers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff