Kerala Blasters 0–1 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Kerala Blasters

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mumbai City

L. Chhangte 47'

2/22/2026

Indian Super League · Round 2Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kerala Blasters33%

×Draw28%

Mumbai City39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kerala BlastersExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.25

Kerala Blasters

1.11

Mumbai City

1.25

Mumbai City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.30

creates per match

1.31

1.20

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Kerala Blasters

1.30

Mumbai City

1.31

allows per match

Kerala Blasters

1.20

Mumbai City

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerala Blasters ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kerala Blasters or draw

61%

Kerala Blasters or Mumbai City

72%

Draw or Mumbai City

67%

Winning margin

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

13%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

67%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

30%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

10%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

71%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

36%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

45%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerala Blasters at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerala Blasters attack 1.30 + Mumbai City defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mumbai City attack 1.31 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kerala Blasters scores more

33%

level

28%

Mumbai City scores more

39%

Mumbai City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mumbai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

A. Shaikh

Kerala Blasters · G

7.7

Match Events

35'

Sahil Panwar

46'

V. Mohanan← R. Borges

46'

K. Yoke← N. Sudeesh

46'

B. Chhetri← S. Panwar

47'

L. Chhangte

50'

Bijay Chhetri

62'

M. Hernandez← M. Roos-Trujillo

62'

Ebindas Y← B. Yumnam

74'

Oumar Bah

76'

A. Muhammad← S. Singh

83'

Z. Zothanpuia← J. Kauko

89'

Phurba Tempa Lachenpa

90'

F. R. Nazareth← V. Partap Singh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KeralaMumbai

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots12

0.57Expected Goals (xG)1.56

6Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target5

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

3Inside Box4

6Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

395Total Passes312

318Accurate Passes251

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4