Kerala Blasters 1–0 Mumbai City: Result & Stats

Kerala Blasters

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mumbai City

K. Peprah 52'

3/7/2025

Indian Super League · Round 25Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kerala Blasters37%

×Draw28%

Mumbai City36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kerala BlastersExpected goals in this matchMumbai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Kerala Blasters

1.21

Mumbai City

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Kerala Blasters

1.33

Mumbai City

1.38

allows per match

Kerala Blasters

1.00

Mumbai City

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerala Blasters ↓

Mumbai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kerala Blasters or draw

64%

Kerala Blasters or Mumbai City

72%

Draw or Mumbai City

63%

Winning margin

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

16%

Mumbai City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

70%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

34%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

12%

Mumbai City 1+ goals

70%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

33%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

51%

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerala Blasters at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerala Blasters attack 1.33 + Mumbai City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mumbai City attack 1.38 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kerala Blasters scores more

37%

level

28%

Mumbai City scores more

36%

Kerala Blasters at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kerala Blasters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Luna

Kerala Blasters · M

7.7

Match Events

2'

Mohammed Aimen

31'

Sahil Panwar

46'

D. Farooq← I. Pandita

46'

P. Das← H. Ralte

52'

K. Peprah

59'

Vibin Mohanan

60'

Naocha Huidrom Singh

65'

Jorge Ortíz← Jon Toral

65'

Noufal PN← B. Singh

70'

Prabir Das

72'

N. Sadaoui← K. Peprah

86'

B. Yumnam← M. Aimen

86'

A. Chhikara← B. Fernandes

86'

N. Rodrigues← S. Panwar

90+8'

Ruivah Hormipam

90+9'

Yoëll van Nieff

90+2'

F. Lallawmawma← V. Mohanan

90+2'

H. Ruivah← A. Dohling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KeralaMumbai

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots10

5Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target2

5Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

335Total Passes497

275Accurate Passes419

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1