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Kenya Police vs Coast Stima — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
1 – 0
Coast Stima
Coast Stima
10/13/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kenya Police48%
×Draw28%
Coast Stima24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.32
Coast Stima
0.83

Kenya Police creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.25
Coast Stima
0.78

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.88
Coast Stima
1.39

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Coast Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
76%
Kenya Police or Coast Stima
72%
Draw or Coast Stima
52%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
23%
Coast Stima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
73%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
38%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
15%
Coast Stima 1+ goals
56%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
20%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
67%
Coast Stima (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.25 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Kenya Police defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kenya Police scores more
48%
level
28%
Coast Stima scores more
24%

Kenya Police at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenya Police vs Coast Stima

Kenya Police beat Coast Stima 1-0 in Super League on October 13, 2018.