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Coast Stima vs Kenya Police — Super League 2018

Coast Stima
Coast Stima
FT
2 – 0
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
5/27/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Coast Stima50%
×Draw26%
Kenya Police23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coast Stima
1.47
Kenya Police
0.91

Coast Stima creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Coast Stima
1.88
Kenya Police
0.94

allows per match

Coast Stima
0.88
Kenya Police
1.06

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw
77%
Coast Stima or Kenya Police
74%
Draw or Kenya Police
50%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+
25%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals
77%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
43%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
18%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
60%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
23%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)
68%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.88 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Coast Stima defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coast Stima scores more
50%
level
26%
Kenya Police scores more
23%

Coast Stima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coast Stima vs Kenya Police

Coast Stima beat Kenya Police 2-0 in Super League on May 27, 2018.