Kenya Police 3–0 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Kenya Police

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bidco United

12/19/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 9Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kenya Police33%

×Draw28%

Bidco United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kenya PoliceExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.20

Kenya Police

1.09

Bidco United

1.20

Bidco United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

1.15

creates per match

0.85

1.54

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Kenya Police

1.15

Bidco United

0.85

allows per match

Kenya Police

1.54

Bidco United

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw

61%

Kenya Police or Bidco United

72%

Draw or Bidco United

67%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+

13%

Bidco United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals

66%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

30%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

10%

Bidco United 1+ goals

70%

Bidco United 2+ goals

34%

Bidco United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

46%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.15 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Kenya Police defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kenya Police scores more

33%

level

28%

Bidco United scores more

39%

Bidco United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff