Bidco United 2–1 Kenya Police: Result & Stats

Bidco United

FT

2 – 1

Kenya Police

8/25/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bidco United49%

×Draw30%

Kenya Police21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bidco UnitedExpected goals in this matchKenya Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.69

Bidco United

1.23

Kenya Police

0.69

Bidco United creates 78% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

0.44

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bidco United

1.39

Kenya Police

0.94

allows per match

Bidco United

0.44

Kenya Police

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Kenya Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw

79%

Bidco United or Kenya Police

70%

Draw or Kenya Police

51%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+

22%

Kenya Police wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals

71%

Bidco United 2+ goals

35%

Bidco United 3+ goals

13%

Kenya Police 1+ goals

50%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

15%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)

70%

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.39 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Bidco United defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bidco United scores more

49%

level

30%

Kenya Police scores more

21%

Bidco United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff