Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Almirante Brown: Result & Stats

Sarmiento Junin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Almirante Brown

H. Cuevas 45+1'

P. Caballero 90+2'

F. Presedo 51'

4/29/2013

Primera Nacional · Round 31Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sarmiento Junin52%

×Draw27%

Almirante Brown21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.80

Sarmiento Junin

1.43

Almirante Brown

0.80

Sarmiento Junin creates 79% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 103 away

1.59

creates per match

0.86

0.74

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

1.59

Almirante Brown

0.86

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.74

Almirante Brown

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

79%

Sarmiento Junin or Almirante Brown

73%

Draw or Almirante Brown

48%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

26%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

76%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

42%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

17%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

55%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

19%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

71%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.59 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Almirante Brown attack 0.86 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

52%

level

27%

Almirante Brown scores more

21%

Sarmiento Junin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

F. Presedo← J. Acosta

45+1'

H. Cuevas

51'

F. Presedo

57'

N. Sánchez← M. Andrizzi

67'

J. Tamburelli← R. Aillapan

71'

J. Galeano← L. Oviedo

71'

H. Ortiz← S. Ibars

83'

G. Medina← J. Robles

90+2'

P. Caballero

Sarmiento

Almirante

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

57'▲N. Sánchez←▼M. Andrizzi

67'▲J. Tamburelli←▼R. Aillapan

71'▲J. Galeano←▼L. Oviedo

Sarmiento Junin substitutes

SánchezTamburelliGaleanoCoriaAzilEtulainVilchez

41'▲F. Presedo←▼J. Acosta

71'▲H. Ortiz←▼S. Ibars

83'▲G. Medina←▼J. Robles

Almirante Brown substitutes

PresedoOrtizMedinaCeballosMenseguézOlmedoDobler

Primera Nacional: Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Almirante Brown

Almirante Brown beat Sarmiento Junin 2-1 in Primera Nacional on April 29, 2013.

Goals: H. Cuevas (45+1'), F. Presedo (51'), P. Caballero (90+2').

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín.

Sarmiento Junin vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2012

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Almirante Brown